Goshen, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

850
FXUS63 KIWX 041742
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
142 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and breezy today with highs well into the 70s.

- Chances (20-50%) increase for scattered showers and storms mid
  afternoon today into tonight. A few storms could become
  strong to severe (wind/hail).

- Cooler with a soaking rain developing Tuesday afternoon into
  Tuesday night (70-90%), best chances along and southeast of
  the US 24 corridor.

- Cool midweek through the weekend with occasional low chances
  (20-30%) for scattered rain showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

A good deal of sunshine and ongoing warm advection within renewed 30
kt plus 925-850 mb southwest flow will push highs well into the 70s
today. Moisture advection and resulting CAPE magnitudes will remain
somewhat limited in this regime however with sfc dewpoints only
reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s within a well mixed boundary layer
by later this afternoon. This likely limits coverage/intensity of
widely scattered convection (20-40%) mid afternoon into mid evening
near a northward advancing warm-frontal like feature, and incoming
weak mid level impulse lifting through from the Mid MS Valley. With
that said, cannot completed rule out an isolated wind threat given
up to 1000 j/kg of MLCAPE and inverted-V type soundings, with hail
also not out of the question given corridors of 25-35 knots of deep
layer shear (hence the SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk).

A longwave trough dropping into the Midwest does push a slowing cold
front into the area from nw to se late this evening into Tuesday
morning. Increasing (50-70%) shower/storm chances will accompany
this feature and/or composite outflow. There may be enough lingering
MUCAPE and strong enough pre-frontal flow to support an isolated
wind threat late evening into the early overnight, mainly northwest
of the US 24 corridor.

Cooler air settles in behind the sfc front on Tuesday. The elevated
portion of the front stalls along/south of the US 24 corridor by
Tuesday afternoon-evening with rain and embedded thunder likely
(70-90%) blossoming as a frontal wave develops along it. Latest
guidance hints at the potential for a sharp cut-off to the rain into
nw IN and sw MI as drier surges in under the frontal slope. Latest
NBM did cut into PoPs/QPF here.

Ensembles continue to lock in aggregate troughing and northwest flow
midweek through the upcoming weekend with below normal temperatures
and periodic opportunties for rain showers as disturbances drop
through in cool cyclonic flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

A warm frontal feature moves northward from central IN/IL area this
afternoon into the evening ahead of a cold front sliding southeast
from the Western Great Lakes. These features bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening with
damaging wind, hail, a low chance for a tornado as the main threats.
In any thunderstorm, heavy rain can lead to the visibility and
ceilings dropping down into MVFR conditions. The tendency for these
storms will be to go from a severe threat to a heavy rain threat as
we move into the overnight period.

Winds are expected to be south of the southwest this afternoon into
tonight before becoming more northwesterly. Gusts today to 30 kts
calm down tonight and weaker winds occur on Tuesday with the front
sliding through. Additionally, some LLWS will be possible
tonight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Roller